Estimate how much you may need to retire by adjusting savings, returns, and timeline to see projected retirement outcomes.
Retirement planning is a compounding problem in two directions: small contribution increases today produce outsized balances 30-40 years out, and small inflation differences over the same window can quietly erode your real purchasing power by half. Modelling the math beats hoping the numbers work. Typical scenarios this calculator answers:
Need different math? Try a 401k calculator for employer-match modelling, a compound-interest calculator for non-monthly compounding, or a savings calculator for shorter-horizon goals like emergency funds or down payments.
Fidelity publishes five official milestones (1×@30, 3×@40, 6×@50, 8×@60, 10×@67), assuming a 15% household savings rate (including employer match), age-appropriate stock/bond allocation, retirement at 67, and a planning horizon to age 93. Multiply your current annual salary by the multiplier to get a checkpoint balance.
| Age | Savings multiplier | $50k salary | $100k salary | $200k salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 1× | $50,000 | $100,000 | $200,000 |
| 40 | 3× | $150,000 | $300,000 | $600,000 |
| 50 | 6× | $300,000 | $600,000 | $1,200,000 |
| 60 | 8× | $400,000 | $800,000 | $1,600,000 |
| 67 | 10× | $500,000 | $1,000,000 | $2,000,000 |
These are guidelines, not guarantees — actual need varies with retirement age, expected longevity, pension/Social Security income, healthcare costs, and lifestyle. A 60-year-old planning to retire at 70 has more runway than the table suggests; one planning to retire at 60 needs more.
The "4% rule" comes from William Bengen's 1994 research showing that a 50/50 stock-bond portfolio withdrawing 4% in year 1 (adjusted for inflation each year after) survived 30 years across every historical US market window from 1926 onward — including 1929 and 1973-74 retirees. Two recent updates matter:
| Source | Recommended rate | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Bengen 1994 (original) | 4.0% | 30-yr horizon, 50/50 stocks/bonds, worst-case "SAFEMAX" from historical data |
| Bengen 2024 (new book) | 4.7% | Diversifying into small-cap and mid-cap equities raised the SAFEMAX |
| Morningstar 2024 | 3.7% | High equity valuations + lower forward bond returns argue for caution |
| Bengen — average across all start years | ~7% | Most retirees who used 4% died with substantially more than they started |
The conservative read: use 4% as a starting point (target nest egg = 25× annual expenses). If you'd rather lock in spending floor with insurance, an SPIA or QLAC can convert part of the nest egg into guaranteed income. If you're willing to adjust spending in down markets ("guardrails" approach), you can often start higher than 4%.
Yes, with caveats. Bengen's original 1994 work used a 30-year horizon and a 50/50 US stock/bond portfolio; the SAFEMAX (worst historical case) was 4.0%, and the average was closer to 7%. In his 2024 book "A Richer Retirement," Bengen revised the safe rate upward to 4.7% by adding small-cap and mid-cap equities to the mix. Morningstar's 2024 "State of Retirement Income" report, by contrast, recommended a more cautious 3.7% rate, citing elevated equity valuations and lower forward bond yields. Practical takeaway: 4% remains a reasonable planning rate, but if you retire into a high-CAPE market, build in flexibility — the difference between 3.7% and 4.7% on a $1M portfolio is $37k vs. $47k in year-1 spending.
The IRS limit for 2026 is $24,500 for employees under 50. The standard catch-up for those 50+ adds $8,000, for a total of $32,500. Under SECURE 2.0, employees aged 60, 61, 62, and 63 get an enhanced "super catch-up" of $11,250 instead of $8,000, for a total of $35,750. The IRA limit is separately $7,500 in 2026 ($8,600 with catch-up at 50+). Note: starting in 2026, if you earned more than $150,000 in FICA wages the prior year, catch-up contributions must be made as Roth (after-tax) rather than traditional pre-tax.
It depends on whether your tax rate today is higher or lower than it will be in retirement. Traditional contributions are pre-tax (lower bill now, taxed on withdrawal). Roth contributions are after-tax (no deduction now, but withdrawals — including all growth — are tax-free). Rule of thumb: if you're in the 12-22% federal bracket now and expect higher in retirement (younger workers, growing earners), Roth wins. If you're in the 32-37% bracket now and expect lower in retirement (high earners near peak), Traditional usually wins. Many planners suggest splitting contributions to build "tax diversification" — withdrawing from both buckets in retirement lets you stay in lower brackets.
Treat Social Security as an inflation-adjusted annuity that reduces the income you need to draw from your nest egg. The average retired-worker benefit was $2,071/month ($24,850/year) in January 2026 per the SSA; a high earner who delays to age 70 can collect significantly more (the SSA caps maximum benefits, but delaying past full retirement age adds ~8% per year to age 70). If your Desired annual retirement income is $80,000 and you and a spouse expect $50,000 combined from Social Security, your nest egg only has to fund $30,000/year — which is a 25× target of $750,000, not $2,000,000. Get an estimate from your Social Security statement and subtract it before sizing the portfolio.
Sequence-of-returns risk is the risk that the order of market returns matters as much as the average. Two retirees with the same 7% lifetime average can have very different outcomes if one experiences a 30% drawdown in year 1 (forced to sell at lows to fund living expenses) versus year 20. Bengen's 4% rule is essentially a defense against this — it sizes the safe rate against the worst historical sequence (1966-1995 retirees, who got hit with the 1970s stagflation just as they started withdrawals). Mitigations: hold 2-3 years of expenses in cash/short-term bonds so you never sell stocks in a crash, use a "bond tent" that adds bonds approaching retirement and slowly shifts back to stocks, or implement spending guardrails (cut withdrawals when the portfolio drops below a threshold).
Under SECURE 2.0 (2022), the RMD start age is currently 73 for people born 1951-1959, and rises to 75 for those born in 1960 or later. Before SECURE 2.0 it was 72; before the original SECURE Act (2019) it was 70½. The IRS uses the Uniform Lifetime Table to set the percentage you must withdraw each year — at age 73 it's about 3.77% of the account balance, rising slowly each year. RMDs apply to Traditional 401(k)s, Traditional IRAs, and most other pre-tax retirement accounts; Roth IRAs have no RMD during the owner's lifetime, and as of 2024 Roth 401(k)s no longer require RMDs either (a SECURE 2.0 change). Missing an RMD triggers a 25% excise tax on the shortfall (reduced from 50% by SECURE 2.0; further reduced to 10% if you correct within two years).
Generally no — at least not when running the 25× / 4% rule math. Home equity doesn't generate withdrawal income unless you sell, downsize, or take a reverse mortgage; until then it's an illiquid asset offset by ongoing carry costs (property tax, insurance, maintenance, roughly 1-3% of value/year). If you plan to downsize from a $700k house to a $400k condo at retirement, count the $300k surplus as part of your investable nest egg, not the full $700k. Some planners include home equity as a separate "longevity reserve" — a backup if portfolio assets run low past age 85 — rather than primary retirement funding.
Honest answer: it depends on your asset mix and how conservative you want to be. The long-run S&P 500 nominal return is around 10% per year (1928-2025), but the long-run real return (after ~3% inflation) is closer to 7%. Bond returns have been 4-5% nominal historically. For a 60/40 stock/bond mix, 6-7% nominal is a common modelling assumption; 5-6% real is its inflation-adjusted equivalent. Many retirement planners run scenarios at three return assumptions — pessimistic (4%), base (6%), and optimistic (8%) — to bracket the outcome rather than betting on one number. Forward-looking estimates from Vanguard, BlackRock, and Morningstar have generally been 5-7% nominal for US equities over the next decade, lower than the long-run history.
The calculator's Inflation rate (%) input lets you separate nominal and real returns. If you enter 7% return and 3% inflation, the projection shows nominal future dollars, but you can mentally convert to today's purchasing power by reducing the future balance by the inflation factor (e.g., $2M in 30 years at 3% inflation = roughly $824k in today's dollars). For "real" planning, enter your Desired annual retirement income in today's dollars (e.g., $80,000) — the calculator's target nest egg using the 4% rule will be in today's dollars too. The Fed targets 2% inflation; long-run US CPI averages 2.5-3%; planning at 3% is a reasonable middle ground.